The Last Word: You Don't Have To Be A Weatherman
In ancient times, decision-makers turned to the famed Oracle of Delphi to predict the future, although it fell out of favor after suggesting that Windows -200 would be commercially available sometime in 200 B.C. Later, priests attempted to look into the hereafter by looking into the entrails of dead animals. Unfortunately, the only thing they could forecast with any accuracy was animal deaths. In the enlightened modern world, we're lucky enough to have software that helps us prepare for tomorrow. But like the Oracle and goat remains, software isn't perfect. And it's costly, which makes its shortcomings -- and those of the people who use it -- seem more egregious. Corporate planners wanting to keep their business colleagues happy in the midst of inaccurate expectations should take a few tips from the sages we're all most familiar with: our weatherpersons.
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Where I live, the meteorologists are locked in a heated battle to convince viewers that they are the best. The brilliance of the campaigns is that they don't focus on each station's ability to predict the weather correctly, say, 8.7 percent of the time. Instead, the weatherpeople trot out their resumes, brag about being native to the area, demonstrate their ability to name all the cloud formations, and show off their gigantic collection of funny hats. They also make a big deal of their station's forecasting technology. One has accu-weather powered by 50,000-watt radar. Another has solar-powered Doppler 4000, which is the only radar that takes you inside the storm, as if that's a place any sane person wants to be. A third station has weather-watchers all over the state PLUS satellite views of earth AND the exclusive drive-time forecast.
Of course, a business forecaster is quite different from that woman on TV with the remote control and perfect teeth. But because hers is the kind of forecasting we're all exposed to most regularly, your co-workers will subconsciously measure your skills against the talents of your local Stormy or Breeze. They will think, "If Stormy was right on the mark about that afternoon wind, why was Hal off by $2 million on his second-quarter revenue estimate?" The silver lining to this cloud is that you can build confidence in your abilities by adopting tricks that persons of weather have developed over the past 50 years. Some examples:
Know when to blame your software. Technology is a perfect scapegoat when things go wrong. But when your forecasts prove to be accurate, be sure to tout your human insights.
Give yourself wiggle room. Just as the weatherpeople are more likely to be right when they say that tomorrow's high temperature will be between 60 and 95 degrees, you can become more accurate by being more vague.
Remember the power of images. Do you present your forecasts in dull spreadsheets? No one's going to be impressed. Look for opportunities to use graphics of lightning bolts, bright yellow suns, and clouds with faces in them that are using their lips to make blowing gestures.
Remember the power of words, too. Personally, I'd avoid using any forecasting software that included words such as "precise" or "exact" or prefixes like "accu-." I'd want something with words like "approximate," "maybe," and "possible." People may give you heat for that. I predict between 60 and 95 degrees' worth.
Dan Danbom writes humor for a number of publications. His latest book is "Humor Meets Your Workforce: Make Laughter One of Your Organization's Goals."

